Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020

A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, named as the disease 2019 (COVID-19) by World Health Organization (WHO). This study was originally conducted January 2020 to estimate potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread at early stage transmission. series connectivity analyses based on domestic international travel networks were using historical aggregated mobile phone data air passenger itinerary data. We found that cordon sanitaire primary city likely have occurred during latter stages peak population numbers leaving city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities other megacities China. estimated there 59,912 passengers, which 834 (95% uncertainty interval: 478–1,349) had infection, a strong correlation seen between predicted risks importation number imported cases found. Given limited understanding emerging infectious diseases very outbreaks, our approaches findings assessing patterns transmission can help guide public health preparedness intervention design for new waves caused variants concern future pandemics effectively limit beyond its initial extent.